Caulfield Cup

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Oct 19, 2023, 09:08

Oz leading trainer Chris Waller has 3 runners and they're going to be ridden by world class jockeys, my pick is Soulcombe at $6.50 who will be ridden by Craig Williams. Like a few other runners on the card but they're short priced favourites.

Stable and leading jockey James McDonald is riding Francesco Guardi sired by Frankel and is quoted @17/1

Oct 19, 2023, 10:32

Thanks Denny - is the race on 21 October 2023 and can you provide the names and odds of all three Chris Walker hoses and the jockeys as well - please.   

Oct 19, 2023, 10:52

Oct 19, 2023, 10:57

Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Caulfield Cup.

2023 Caulfield Cup Runner Preview:

1. Gold Trip: Gold Trip proved last year that he can run in all three majors and be more than competitive. All the talk, from Mark Zahra (riding Without A Fight) post Turnbull, was run in the Cox Plate but I am glad he is running here. The Turnbull win…it was Winx-esque in terms of the turn of foot and arrogance of putting the race to bed so easily. Yes, poorly weighted compared to those from the Turnbull leading into this, but I think he can overcome that and still win.

2. Without A Fight: An unusual step up, 1800m to 2400m, several weeks between runs. I thought his Underwood run was solid but I am not jumping up and down about him like some given he was comfortably held I thought by Soulcombe. I reckon Zahra would jump ship to ride the favourite if he had a chance and IMO, this horse is still a query at 2400m at the top level. He has to be double figures.

3. Breakup: Those in the know in Japan say the Melbourne Cup is the race for Breakup, but IMO, I think 2400m is his sweet spot. His Timeform ratings/data suggest 3200m will be his go, but IMO, I reckon he will be much better placed here. The depth won’t be as deep compared to the first Tuesday in November, he’ll be strong at the end and we know how good the Japanese are in this race.

4. Montefilia: Getting on in years but has found winning form and she can go on with it. Hill Stakes win was very good, rocketing to the line late, and she was one of the runs in the race last year. Last start showed she can handle firm ground and a truly run 2400m will be no issue for her. I think $13+ for her is on the overs side.

5. Francesco Guardi: J Mac is getting down to 54kg to ride, which is a significant lead given he hasn’t got down that low in a couple of years. This horse was a star this time last year when winning the Moonee Valley Cup. This prep, I thought he was ticking along beautifully but the Turnbull run…it was okay, but not screaming out of a coming Cup winner.

6. West Wind Blows: The more you watch the Turnbull replay, the run of West Wind Blows was just unbelievable. He did all the work to land on speed in a truly run race and was still there chipping away to run second. The query I have with him is what has that taken out of him. If he bounces off that run, he should be a clear second favourite. But, if he has had a sook since the run and wants his mummy, then pen him. The late market and the mounting yard will be crucial.

7. Nonconformist: Solid in the Might And Power but I think his days as a genuine Cups sort of horse are behind him. He’s a second tier WFA horse at best IMO.

8. Soulcombe: He has this nasty habit of flopping out the gates and giving away a head start. That said, he is absolutely flying at present and his runs in both the Underwood and Turnbull have been more than sound. Crying out for 2400m, he’s weighted to win it…I just don’t think he can give them a start and a beating. He’s going to need a 12/10 from Williams but if he gets it, he can win for sure.

9. Duke De Sessa: Big, big improver. 1400m to 2000m in the Turnbull, several weeks between runs, and he was quite good from the back, albeit safely held by Gold Trip. Highly doubt he turns the tables, but is one with good upside/progression.

10. Hoo Ya Mal: For mine, he is far too short. He had every chance in the Hill Stakes, given a 12/10 by Hippo and was the winner, but turned it up late when run down by Montefilia. Dry deck yes, 2400m yes, weighted to win it yes…but IMO, he’s a thinker.

11. Right You Are: Looked like he was ticking along nicely towards this race but didn’t do enough in the Turnbull and IMO, he’s going to struggle against these.

12. Emissary: Did nothing in the Turnbull and suspect it’ll be similar here.

13. Goldman: Six months ago, he was $8 favourite for the Melbourne Cup. Fast forward to now, he looks like a donkey and is close to rank outsider in the Caulfield Cup. No hope.

14. Okita Soushi: I think he is more of a Melbourne Cup horse than Caulfield Cup, similar to stablemate Valiant King. His best form is beyond 2400m so I think he will want a very genuine tempo to be a realistic chance. But, he has the quality to run a positive race.

15. Fame: Sneaky going well this guy but he’s not up to this level.

16. Bois D’Argent: He is sneaky flying but is poorly placed here. He can win a race, but not here.

17. Spirit Ridge: Led everywhere bar the post in both the Newcastle Cup and Metropolitan. Those races haven’t been franked as form references and even though he’s racing well, he’s not good enough.

18. Valiant King: I think he is more of a Melbourne Cup contender but the line is Desert Hero, who was touted as a Melbourne Cup contender before connections pulled the pin. Valiant King and he clashed at Royal Ascot and I can make a case that Valiant King should have won but had no luck. If this becomes a true 2400m test, I think this horse only runs well.

19. United Nations (First Emergency): Had every chance in a thin Herbert Power. Not for me.

2023 Caulfield Cup Speed Map

Based on what happened in the Turnbull, West Wind Blows and Goldman look the main two speed influences. Spirit Ridge will press forward but whether he leads is unknown. Right You Are will likely sit near the front and try to find a spot while Hoo Ya Mal has the GaiBott factor and their runners like to settle forward of midfield.

2023 Caulfield Cup $100 Betting Strategy:

$50 Win Gold Trip (Tote/SP)
$20 Win Soulcombe (Tote/SP)

$20 Win Breakup (Tote/SP)

$10 Win Valiant King @ $18

Group l Strategy Outlay: $1400
Group l Strategy Return: $1656

2023 Caulfield Cup Odds:

Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup
Caulfield | 2400 | Good 4
October 21, 2023
5:15 PM
1. Gold Trip (11)
J: Ben Melham
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
2. Without A Fight (7)
J: Mark Zahra
T: A & S Freedman
3. Breakup (5)
J: Damian Lane
T: Tatsuya Yoshioka
4. Montefilia (9)
J: Blake Shinn
T: Chris Waller
5. Francesco Guardi (15)
J: James Mcdonald
T: Chris Waller
6. West Wind Blows (2)
J: J P Spencer
T: Simon & Ed Crisford
7. Nonconformist (19)
J: Harry Coffey
T: Grahame Begg
8. Soulcombe (6)
J: Craig Williams
T: Chris Waller
9. Duke De Sessa (14)
J: John Allen
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
10. Hoo Ya Mal (8)
J: Tim Clark
T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
11. Right You Are (13)
J: Michael Dee
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
12. Emissary (4)
J: Jye Mcneil
T: Michael Moroney
13. Goldman (18)
J: Linda Meech
T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
14. Okita Soushi (12)
J: Kerrin Mcevoy
T: Joseph O'brien
15. Fame (16)
J: Craig Newitt
T: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman
16. Bois D'argent (3)
J: Winona Costin
T: Annabel Neasham
Oct 19, 2023, 11:14

Oct 19, 2023, 11:16

17. Spirit Ridge (10)
J: Dean Yendall
T: Annabel Neasham
18. Valiant King (1)
J: Jamie Kah
T: Joseph O'brien
19. United Nations (17)
J: Carleen Hefel
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Oct 20, 2023, 16:06


I put R50 on Soulcombe

Oct 20, 2023, 16:06


I put R50 on Soulcombe

Oct 20, 2023, 16:06


I put R50 on Soulcombe

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